Assessment of the Potential for Territorial Development in the Coastal Regions of Qeshm Island, Iran

ABSTRACT

The current research aimed to examine the transformations in landforms and coastal utilization of Qeshm Island, located in the Persian Gulf in southern Iran, through a novel integrated methodology. The study utilized LANDSAT satellite images, the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) module within Esri ArcGIS software, and aerial photographs to analyze coastal landforms. Key parameters were classified into eight criteria and 45 sub‐criteria to determine suitable zones for coastal development. The weight and importance of these parameters were determined through fuzzy analytic network process (FANP). Areas that were suitable for coastal development were determined through layer overlaying, after which the susceptible zones were ranked by means of the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). As highlighted by the analysis results, the Linear Regression Rate (LRR) along the primary and secondary coasts indicated respective values of 7.63 and 19.44 m/year for 1990 and 2020, while these values were 241.3 and 569 m for the Net Shoreline Movement (NSM). In the southern region, regressive erosion and coastline retreat exceeded sedimentation. Barren lands, Hezar Darreh (Badland), and scattered forests were identified as the dominant coastal land use patterns, with relative frequencies of 29.3%, 23.7%, and 10.3%, respectively. From 1967 to 2017, barren lands, agricultural lands, rocky hills, mangrove forests, and coastal cliffs decreased by 4851, 297, 7099, 219, and 2938 ha, respectively, while human settlements expanded by 2094 ha. Approximately 12,144 ha of Qeshm Island's coast were classified as quite suitable for development, while 14,457 ha were considered suitable. Eleven optimal zones were identified, with the areas surrounding Suza port, Laft port, and Shib‐e‐Deraz prioritized for development, covering 2366, 833, and 1365 ha, respectively. This research demonstrates the effectiveness and novelty of the integrated FANP‐TOPSIS‐DSAS approach as a powerful decision‐support framework for comprehensive coastal evaluation and strategic planning.