Assessment of the Impact of Political Confrontations on Maritime Energy Trade with the Development of a Simulation Model Concept

Amidst escalating geopolitical tensions between major economic powers (China and the USA), the sanctions-driven standoff between Russia and the West, and the deteriorating military-political situation in the Middle East, the resilience of international maritime routes and the search for alternatives to ensure the security of trade flows have become increasingly important. The Strait of Hormuz, as a key southern energy route, and the Northern Sea Route (NSR), as the main Arctic route, play a special role in global logistics. The study’s analysis reveals that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil volumes (20.9 million barrels per day), roughly 19% of LNG supplies (85.4 million tonnes per year), and about 30% of global fertilizer trade (16 million tonnes). According to some experts, the closure of this marine hub in 2026 is estimated at about 7 billion US dollars, which further demonstrates its importance as a key "bottleneck" of global energy logistics. The worsening military-political situation surrounding the Strait and the risk of its blockade heighten the importance of the NSR as a potential backup transport corridor for Asian nations (China, India, South Korea, and Japan). Although the NSR’s energy resource transport volume trails significantly behind that of the Strait of Hormuz as of 2025 (31.84 million tonnes versus 1,084.73 million tonnes, respectively), the route shows positive growth trends (rising from 27.3 million tonnes in 2021 to 31.84 million tonnes in 2025). The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the main maritime trade routes, provides indicators of the economic burden of the Strait of Hormuz and the Northern Sea Route, and provides a brief assessment of the consequences of blocking the southern Strait for energy transportation. Based on the conducted research, the concept of an agent-based model is proposed, designed for scenario experiments with the possibility of searching for alternative maritime logistics routes in the face of external shocks.