Assessment of Russia’s communication and digital potential: evidence from leading subjects

The article presents the results of assessing Russia’s communication and digital potential based on an analysis of the role of the ICT sector in the structure of gross value added, employment, and labor productivity. The industry “Information and Communication” is used as the main measurable indicator, as it most directly reflects the development of information technologies, telecommunications infrastructure, and digital services. The study is based on data for Russia and six leading constituent entities of the Russian Federation – Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Republic of Tatarstan, Sverdlovsk Oblast, Novosibirsk Oblast, and Tomsk Oblast – selected with regard to the ranking of scientific and technological development. The information base consists of Rosstat data for 2000–2023. It is shown that in Russia the share of the ICT sector in GVA increased from 1.6% to 3.2%, the share of employment rose from 1.4% to 2.3%, and labor productivity grew from 7.1 to 48.8 USD/hour. A pronounced territorial differentiation of communication and digital potential has been identified. Moscow holds leading positions in all key parameters; St. Petersburg forms the second service and technology center; Tatarstan and Sverdlovsk Oblast develop an industrial-digital model; while Novosibirsk and Tomsk oblasts possess scientific and educational prerequisites for digital growth. It is concluded that regional digital development depends not only on the scale of the economy, but also on the ability of the ICT sector to generate high value added. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the typology of regions based on a combination of three criteria: the structural significance of the ICT sector, employment concentration, and the productive return of the digital sector.