Assessment of Nutrient Impacts on Surface Water Quality in the Polissia Region Using Intelligent Data Analysis

In crisis times, traditional models of water quality assessment and water resources management lose their effectiveness. In the current conditions of local climate change, accidental pollution, emergencies or military operations, there is an urgent need to transition from traditional descriptive hydrochemical monitoring toward intelligent analysis of spatial-temporal datasets. In this paper, the integrated approach combining spatial cluster analysis, GIS-based visualization, and machine learning is proposed for assessing the surface water quality under conditions of limited and incomplete hydrochemical monitoring data. A geospatial assessment of nutrient impacts on surface water quality was conducted using 192 hydrochemical observations collected during the 2024–2025 monitoring period at eight state monitoring stations located in the basins of the Teteriv, Uzh, Irsha, Ubort, Sluch, Hnylopiat, and Voznia rivers, Polissia, Ukraine. Permutation feature importance analysis based on the Random Forest model showed that nitrate concentration accounted for approximately 75% of the total relative importance, whereas phosphate concentration contributed approximately 14%, indicating that these variables were the most informative predictors among the investigated hydrochemical parameters. The latter parameters are associated with dissolved oxygen variability among the analyzed hydrochemical parameters. According to the results of this study, three interpretable groups of monitoring stations were formed: Cluster 1, representing moderate water quality with increased nutrient pressure, Cluster 2, representing comparatively favourable background conditions, and Cluster 3, representing a nitrate-dominated hydrochemical type. The Random Forest model demonstrated limited predictive performance (R2 = 0.154), indicating that nutrient-related variables alone explain only a small proportion of dissolved oxygen variability. Hence, additional factors, including hydrological conditions, water temperature, organic matter decomposition, biological productivity, and catchment-specific characteristics, also play an important role in shaping oxygen dynamics. The spatial visualization of cluster membership showed that geographical location alone does not fully determine the surface water quality patterns in Ukrainian Polissia. Instead, the local catchment characteristics and land-use conditions appear to exert a stronger influence on the formation of nutrient-related water quality differences. The authors propose to employ the spatial cluster analysis and machine learning as a basic supporting tool for the transition from retrospective interpretation of hydrochemical monitoring data to predictive and adaptive water resources management. The integration of geospatial analysis and machine learning provides a practical decision-support framework for the early detection of anomalies, identification of potential pollution sources, and prioritization of river sub-basins for implementing nature-based solutions.