DOI: 10.46810/tdfd.1918929 ISSN: 2149-6366

Assessment of Long Term Surface Water and Vegetation Changes in Lake Çıldır Using NDVI and NDWI Time Series

Cansu Bozkurt, Burak Çırağ
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One of the significant consequences of global climate change, drought is a natural disaster directly related to decreasing rainfall and rising temperatures, affecting water resources. This situation affects ecological, environmental, and socioeconomic systems in a multidimensional manner. In addition to climate variability, unsustainable use of natural resources further intensifies drought impacts. The effective management of limited and renewable water resources is of critical importance for sustainable development. Therefore, monitoring drought dynamics in lake ecosystems is essential. In this study, hydroclimatic changes in and around Lake Çıldır for the period 1985-2025 were examined using remote sensing and GIS techniques. NDVI and NDWI index-based analyzes have revealed that vegetation cover and surface water presence have shown fluctuations over time. General declining trends were observed in vegetation and surface water indicators, indicating increased drought impacts during certain periods. The joint evaluation of the indices has revealed the relationship between plant health and surface water more comprehensively. However, no statistically significant relationship was found between lake area changes and the indices, with correlation coefficients remaining low. As a result, it has been understood that multi-parameter approaches provide more reliable results in water resources management.

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