Assessment of Climate Change in Angola and Potential Impacts on Agriculture

Agroclimatic indicators help convey information about climate variability and change in terms that are meaningful to the agricultural sector. This study evaluated climate projections for Angola, particularly for provinces with more significant agricultural potential. To this end, 15 predefined agroclimatic indicators in 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, under the anthropogenic forcing scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were compared with the historical period 1981–2010 as a baseline. We selected two climate scenarios and two temporal horizons to obtain a comprehensive view of the potential impacts of climate change in Angola. Data were extracted within the geographic window of longitudes 10–24° E and latitudes 4–18° S and from five general circulation models (GCM), namely MIROC-ESM-CHEM, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-M. The set averages of agroclimatic indicators and their differences between historical and future periods are discussed in relation to the likely implications for agriculture in Angola. The results show significant increases in average daily maximum (2–3 °C) and minimum (2–3 °C) temperatures in Angola. For the future, a generally significant reduction in precipitation (and its associated indicators) is expected in all areas of Angola, with the southwest region (Namibe and Huíla) recording the most pronounced decrease, up to 300 mm. At the same time, the maximum number of consecutive dry days will increase across the country, especially in the Northeast. A widespread increase in temperatures is expected, leading to hot and dry conditions in Angola that could lead to more frequent, intense, and prolonged extreme events, such as tropical nights, the maximum number of consecutive summer days, hot and rainy days, and warm period duration index periods. These changes can seriously affect agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems in Angola, thereby requiring adaptation strategies to reduce risks and adverse effects while ensuring the sustainability of the country’s natural resources and guaranteeing its food security.