Oliver Mendoza-Cano, Xóchitl Trujillo, Miguel Huerta, Mónica Ríos-Silva, Agustin Lugo-Radillo, Verónica Benites-Godínez, Jaime Alberto Bricio-Barrios, Eder Fernando Ríos-Bracamontes, Juan Manuel Uribe-Ramos, Greta Mariana Baltazar-Rodríguez, Efrén Murillo-Zamora

Assessing the Relationship between Annual Surface Temperature Changes and the Burden of Dengue: Implications for Climate Change and Global Health Outcomes

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • General Immunology and Microbiology
Save to CiteDrive Show PDF

Dengue fever remains a significant global health concern, imposing a substantial burden on public health systems worldwide. Recent studies have suggested that climate change, specifically the increase in surface temperatures associated with global warming, may impact the transmission dynamics of dengue. This study aimed to assess the relationship between annual surface temperature changes from 1961 to 2019 and the burden of dengue in 185 countries. The dengue burden was evaluated for 2019 using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the annual rate of change (ARC) in DALY rates assessed from 1990 to 2019. A cross-sectional and ecological analysis was conducted using two publicly available datasets. Regression coefficients (β) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to examine the relationship between annual surface temperature changes and the burden of dengue. The results revealed a significant negative relationship between mean surface temperatures and DALY rates in 2019 (β = −16.9, 95% CI −26.9 to −6.8). Similarly, a significant negative relationship was observed between the temperature variable and the ARC (β = −0.99, 95% CI −1.66 to −0.32). These findings suggest that as temperatures continue to rise, the burden of dengue may globally decrease. The ecology of the vector and variations in seasons, precipitation patterns, and humidity levels may partially contribute to this phenomenon. Our study contributes to the expanding body of evidence regarding the potential implications of climate change for dengue dynamics. It emphasizes the critical importance of addressing climate change as a determinant of global health outcomes.

Need a simple solution for managing your BibTeX entries? Explore CiteDrive!

  • Web-based, modern reference management
  • Collaborate and share with fellow researchers
  • Integration with Overleaf
  • Comprehensive BibTeX/BibLaTeX support
  • Save articles and websites directly from your browser
  • Search for new articles from a database of tens of millions of references
Try out CiteDrive

More from our Archive