Assessing Populist Belligerence: Evidence of Populism and Democratic Governance’s Interaction on Interstate Violence

Abstract

A burgeoning literature seeks to explain populism’s influence on international security. Two regime characteristics appear particularly troubling in this regard: their degree of populism and their degree of democratic governance. While considerable research has explored these paired phenomena regarding states’ domestic agendas, little work has systematically examined these trends vis-à-vis states’ propensity for interstate violence using large-N quantitative analysis. Drawing on populism data from the V-Dem Party dataset (1970–2014), we examine how these factors contribute to states’ likelihood of threatening or utilizing military force. We find that populism’s effects on interstate bellicosity are particularly pronounced among more authoritarian regimes, however populism increases the likelihood of threat-making and use of military force by democracies and non-democracies alike. Overall, bellicose behavior is less apparent from examining degrees of populism or authoritarianism in isolation than from their interaction. These findings contribute to lively debates on populism’s imprint on international peace and stability.