Assessing Livelihood Vulnerability of Peri‐Urban Farmers to Urban Expansion and Climate Variability in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Livelihood vulnerability assessments in developing nations have traditionally focused on rural agrarian settings, analysing environmental shocks through a strictly hydro‐meteorological lens. However, peri‐urban areas are critical socio‐spatial interfaces where state‐led urban encroachment acts as a concurrent, compounding macro‐stressor alongside climate variability. Arguing against standard, climate‐only frameworks, this study demonstrates that peri‐urban vulnerability is a multi‐stressor outcome of both climatic and rapid land‐use transformations. Employing a mixed‐methods approach, the study utilised the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framework with data from a survey of 345 households, complemented by qualitative insights from Focus Group Discussions (FGD). The LVI‐IPCC results (on a scale of −1 to +1) reveal a state of moderate vulnerability (mean = −0.029), representing a fragile equilibrium where limited adaptive capacity barely offsets rising exposure. High sensitivity (0.586) emerged as the most acute dimension, driven by the interaction of urban encroachment (eroding the natural asset base) and climate variability (undermining crop productivity). This dual pressure acts as a vulnerability multiplier, threatening long‐term sustainability by trapping households in high‐risk subsistence cycles. Although farmers possess strong human (0.628) and social capital (0.554), their adaptive capacity is severely constrained by deficits in physical and financial capital, particularly the lack of rural electrification and income diversification (0.428). The study concludes that traditional resilience is being systematically overwhelmed. Actionable recommendations include implementing participatory land‐use zoning to protect agricultural buffers, institutionalising micro‐insurance schemes for crop loss and providing vocational training to youth to reduce dependence on shrinking farmland and ensure long‐term peri‐urban resilience.