Assessing Habitat Suitability and Landscape Connectivity for the Endangered Forest Musk Deer ( Moschus berezovskii ) at Its Northern Distribution Margin: A Multi‐Scale Ensemble Approach

ABSTRACT

For forest‐dwelling habitat specialists, landscapes at range margins can serve as critical refugia if they provide suitable topographic and thermal conditions. However, the spatial isolation of these important habitats makes their dispersal pathways vulnerable to anthropogenic barriers. Understanding the habitat suitability and landscape connectivity of such peripheral populations is critical for targeted conservation. This study investigates the endangered forest musk deer ( Moschus berezovskii ) at its northernmost known distribution limit in China (Huanglong Mountains, Shaanxi). To facilitate representative sampling, we conducted systematic field surveys and utilized DNA molecular identification of fecal remains to collect occurrence data. We employed a multi‐scale ensemble species distribution model (ensemble SDM) and circuit theory to evaluate habitat suitability and landscape connectivity. The results indicate that habitat suitability at this environmental edge is associated with scale‐dependent factors, particularly steep terrain (slope contribution 56.2%), annual precipitation (19.1%), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (12.8%). Our multi‐scale approach reveals a decoupled spatial pattern: forest musk deer rely on macro‐scale steep terrain for security while utilizing micro‐scale microclimatic refugia to mitigate physiological heat stress. We identified 863.0 km ² of primary habitat, of which 66.1% is currently protected, revealing substantial conservation gaps. Furthermore, 25 potential dispersal corridors were delineated, showing that localized linear infrastructure intersects with or flanks critical dispersal bottlenecks, impeding landscape permeability. These findings emphasize that conservation planning should shift toward dynamic, network‐oriented management. Future strategies should prioritize expanding protected areas to formally encompass unprotected habitats, mitigating infrastructure barriers via targeted crossing structures, and establishing cross‐administrative governance alongside local community engagement to sustain the long‐term viability of this endangered specialist at its range margins.