Assessing eutrophication susceptibility in Deran Lake using GIS-SMCE

Abstract

Deran Lake, located within Hutovo Blato Nature Park in Bosnia and Herzegovina, is a shallow wetland ecosystem shaped by complex hydrological connectivity, meteorological variability, and anthropogenic pressures. This study applies and adapts a spatial multicriteria decision-making framework, originally developed for water quality modelling in a different lake system, to assess eutrophication susceptibility in Deran Lake. The main objective was to evaluate the flexibility and robustness of the framework under different hydrodynamic and ecological conditions. Monitoring was conducted from June to October 2025 and included 76  in situ measurements of water temperature (WT), dissolved oxygen (DO), electrical conductivity (EC), and turbidity. These data were integrated with meteorological variables, hydrological characteristics, land use patterns, and potential pollution sources. All criteria were standardized using fuzzy membership functions, weighted through a hierarchical procedure, and aggregated into a spatial susceptibility index. The results revealed a clear spatial gradient, with higher susceptibility in the southern and southwestern parts of the lake and lower susceptibility in the northern sector. These patterns reflect the combined effects of nutrient transport pathways, wind exposure, and anthropogenic pressures. Spatially explicit sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust, with DO, WT, turbidity, and EC exerting the strongest influence. The proposed framework provides a transparent, transferable, and decision-oriented tool for wetland management and for prioritising future monitoring efforts.