DOI: 10.11648/j.sdf.20260103.12 ISSN: 3143-6781

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Coffee Production in Hai District, Tanzania: Evidence from Climate Data and Smallholder Farmers

Aden Mbuba, Domic Lameck
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A study investigated the impact of climate change on coffee production on the slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro by analyzing climatic and yield data trends over 30 years from 1989 to 2018. Meteorological data, including rainfall and temperature, were extracted from the Lyamungu meteorological station. Data on yield were collected through questionnaires, interviews, and focus group discussions with the farmer. Furthermore, data analysis was performed using SPSS version 12.0 and COSATAT for regression analysis, the results showed that total rainfall distribution remained relatively stable, though there were slight changes in trends, with long rain peaks becoming steeper. The mean maximum temperature exhibited significant variation over the years, averaging around 25°C, which is still within the optimal range for coffee cultivation. Notably, the temperature in 1997 deviated most from the mean, rising by almost 1°C. Despite these climatic fluctuations, coffee yield trends were not significantly affected. The study suggests that coffee production in Machame Mashariki ward has not yet been severely impacted by climate change. However, it recommends adaptive strategies such as mulching, trickle irrigation, and rainwater harvesting to mitigate potential future effects. This comprehensive assessment provides valuable insights into the resilience of coffee production to climatic variations on the slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro.

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