Artificial intelligence shows comparable or improved performance to traditional risk models in predicting atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke
Femke Wouters, Myrte Barthels, Julie Vranken, Christophe Smeets, Henri Gruwez, Laurent Pison, Hugo Van Herendael, Maximo Rivero-Ayerza, Dieter Nuyens, Ludovic Ernon, Kim Bekelaar, Dieter Mesotten, David Verhaert, Pieter VandervoortBackground and Aims
Detecting subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF) and initiating anticoagulation therapy are critical for secondary stroke prevention after cryptogenic stroke. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of traditional AF risk scores commonly used in clinical practice and compare with an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven ECG-derived AF prediction score.
Methods
A retrospective tertiary care center study identified all cryptogenic stroke/TIA patients admitted between 2017-2023 who received an implantable cardiac monitor (ICM). The European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-recommended risk factors and risk score components (i.e.,CHA 2 DS 2 -VA, Brown ESUS-AF, and HAVOC) from the 2024 guidelines for AF management, were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression to predict AF within one-year post-ICM insertion. The predictive performance of these risk scores and an AI-driven ECG algorithm for AF detection was assessed and compared.
Results
230 cryptogenic stroke/TIA patients underwent ICM insertion. Only age (OR: 1.033, 95%CI 1.002-1.066) was associated with an increased likelihood of AF detection within one-year post-ICM insertion. The ECG-AI score demonstrated higher predictive power over CHA 2 DS 2 -VA and HAVOC (p=.002), and was the only score exceeding an AUROC value of 0.7, but did not outperform Brown ESUS-AF (p=.210). Patients with high scores had a more than two-fold increased likelihood of AF detection (HR: 2.7, 95%CI 1.2-5.8, p=.01).
Conclusions
In patients with cryptogenic stroke receiving an ICM, the ECG-AI score showed modest discrimination for AF detection, outperforming CHA 2 DS 2 -VA and HAVOC, but not Brown ESUS-AF. Age was the only significant clinical predictor. These findings indicate a possible role for AI-driven ECG analysis in risk stratification.