Artificial Intelligence, Green Technology Innovation, and Industrial Modernization: Evidence from China

Industrial modernization is widely regarded as an important pathway toward high-quality and sustainable economic development. Using panel data from 30 provinces in mainland China from 2012 to 2023, this study examines the relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) and industrial modernization. AI is proxied by industrial robot density, while industrial modernization is evaluated using a composite index covering supportiveness, substantiveness, innovativeness, greenness, openness, and integration. Fixed-effects models are employed, alongside a series of robustness tests and instrumental variable estimation. The results indicate that AI, as captured by industrial robot density, is positively associated with industrial modernization. This relationship remains robust after adopting alternative measures, introducing lagged explanatory variables and additional controls, applying winsorization, adjusting the sample, and addressing potential endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the association is stronger in eastern provinces and in regions with higher levels of AI infrastructure and technical talent. Mechanism analysis suggests that green technology innovation is an important channel through which AI is associated with industrial modernization. In addition, software industry development strengthens the positive association between AI and industrial modernization, highlighting the importance of complementary digital capabilities in supporting industrial transformation. These findings contribute to understanding how AI adoption, represented by industrial robot deployment, is related to industrial modernization and suggest that policies promoting AI-driven industrial transformation should be accompanied by investments in green innovation, software industry development, digital infrastructure, and technical talent cultivation.