ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND DIGITAL TAX GOVERNANCE IN NIGERIA: ASSESSING THE FISCAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL MIGRATION

Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and increasing global migration are reshaping the fiscal landscape of developing economies, particularly in the context of digital tax governance. This research provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of artificial intelligence and global migration on Nigeria’s digital tax governance from 2000 to 2024. Employing an ex-post facto research design, the study utilizes annual time-series data and applies panel econometric techniques with structural break analysis around 2016. Data were obtained from official government publications and international databases. Prior to 2016, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth had a significant positive impact on tax revenue (β = 0.65, p < 0.01), while AI adoption and global migration indicators were statistically insignificant. Post-2016, AI adoption showed a significant positive effect on tax revenue (β = 0.48, p < 0.001), while net migration (β = 0.23, p < 0.05) and remittance inflows (β = 0.31, p < 0.01) had significant positive impact on tax revenue. Conversely, the ICT infrastructure index maintained a negative association with tax revenue (β = -0.27, p < 0.05), and inflation exerted a detrimental post-2016 effect (β = -0.34, p < 0.05). The study concludes that digital transformation and migration dynamics are reshaping Nigeria’s fiscal system. It recommends AI integration in tax systems, remittance formalization, macroeconomic stability, and ICT policy reform to strengthen digital tax governance and enhance long-term revenue mobilization.