Architecture-Induced Tail Risk in Tokenized Assets: Bridge Versus Native Settlement Designs in Voluntary Carbon Markets

Abstract

Blockchain-based settlement architectures for digital assets generate distinct channels of platform-level tail risk depending on whether assets are bridged from off-chain registries or created natively on-chain. A Monte Carlo simulation framework, anchored to 1,540 days of empirical price data from tokenized carbon markets, quantifies how these choices shape extreme losses: a Bridge-type delayed mark-to-market accounting model and a Native direct-verification model are evaluated through a controlled model comparison under shared market price trajectories and scenario-based operational parameters. Three leading-order analytical design benchmarks are derived under stated diffusion and event-process assumptions: a collateral-buffer benchmark, an integrity residence-time benchmark, and a confidence-feedback benchmark governed by an exogenous trust-elasticity parameter. They combine into an approximate, model-dependent architecture-comparison threshold on a common daily horizon and baseline-capitalization basis. A historical plausibility assessment against the Verra 2023 crisis places the realized drawdown within the simulated extreme-tail envelope. The resulting buffer and monitoring quantities are calibration-specific design benchmarks, not universal laws or regulatory requirements.​