Application of a rapid risk assessment framework for tick-borne encephalitis in Germany

Background

Tick‑borne encephalitis (TBE) is an increasing public health concern in Germany, with rising case numbers and expanding endemic areas. Early detection and timely assessment of outbreak risk are crucial for implementing preventive measures such as vaccination and public awareness efforts.

Methods

We developed a Rapid Risk Assessment (RRA) framework that uses epidemiological, environmental, and socio‑economic data to estimate TBE outbreak potential at the district level. The framework combines clinical signals from reported cases with indicators of hazard, exposure, and contextual conditions, including tick density, ecological characteristics, population immunity, and climatic factors like temperature and humidity. Risk profiles are generated through scoring and modeling approaches and validated using historical case data from 2020 to 2025.

Results

Applying the RRA framework revealed substantial spatial variation in TBE risk across Germany, with higher probabilities in southwestern and western regions. Elevated risk scores correlated strongly with observed case increases, demonstrating the framework’s value as an early‑warning tool. It enables identification of high‑risk districts, assessment of outbreak progression likelihood, and evaluation of environmental influences on tick activity and virus transmission.

Conclusions

This RRA framework offers public health authorities a systematic and timely method to monitor TBE risk at a fine geographic scale. By integrating dynamic environmental and epidemiological data, it supports targeted interventions, resource allocation, and vaccination strategies aimed at reducing Germany’s TBE burden. Future improvements will focus on incorporating real‑time data streams and adapting the model to ongoing climate and land‑use changes that affect tick distribution and virus transmission.

Key messages

• This novel Rapid Risk Assessment framework accurately identifies district‑level tick‑borne encephalitis risk in Germany by integrating epidemiological and environmental data

• The framework supports early warning and targeted public health actions, enabling better vaccination strategies, resource allocation, and prevention efforts in high‑risk areas