Anomalous Decline Patterns of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Driven by Arctic Oscillation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as the core component of the global thermohaline circulation, exerts a profound influence on the Northern Hemisphere climate. Recent observations show that AMOC intensity has weakened by approximately 15% over the past 40 years, yet the traditional theoretical framework dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) cannot fully explain its spatial heterogeneity. This study systematically quantifies the independent driving mechanism of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on AMOC decline for the first time by integrating multi-source reanalysis data (ERA5, ORAS5) and CMIP6 model output. Theoretical analysis shows that the AO positive phase regulates the stability of AMOC through two coupled pathways: (1) anomalous wind stress curl leads to the weakening of Ekman suction in the subpolar seas (contribution: 42 ± 6%), inhibiting deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea; and (2) increased freshwater flux through the Fram Strait triggers a negative salinity advection feedback, which leads to shoaling of the North Atlantic high-latitude mixed layer by up to 30 m. The cross-scale interaction reveals that the AO interannual variability amplifies the modulation of the AMOC interdecadal trend. This amplification occurs through the positive feedback of sea-ice albedo. When AO and NAO are locked in opposite phases (AO+/NAO−), the AMOC weakening rate increases to 1.8 Sv/decade (1 Sv = 106 m3/s), whereas the same-phase negative condition (AO−/NAO−) yields a moderate decline of 0.5 Sv/decade. This mechanism corrects the underestimation of the traditional wind-driven circulation theory for high-latitude processes and provides a physical attribution for the CMIP6 models’ systematic underestimation of AMOC sensitivity. The study further constructs the “Arctic Oscillation–subpolar basin–AMOC” three-pole coupling theoretical model and confirms that the Arctic amplification effect enhances the AO–AMOC coupling strength by a factor of 2.3 over the full study period (1979–2020; R2 = 0.71, p < 0.01), with an even more pronounced enhancement of 2.1 times during the recent two decades (2000–2020; R2 increased from 0.28 to 0.59). These findings have direct implications for coastal risk assessment, as AMOC weakening may accelerate sea-level rise along the North American East Coast and increase the frequency of extreme winter storm surges in European coastal areas. The results provide a dynamic basis for IPCC climate risk assessment and have practical application value for the early warning of extreme cold-wave events.