Analyzing the Interconnectedness Within the Volatile Crypto Market: Evidence from Two Consequent Non-economic Shocks

This study investigates return spillovers among the 15 most capitalized cryptocurrencies during the Russia-Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were extracted from the Coin Market Cap database to ensure a comprehensive analysis of market behavior, covering a daily series from January 2020 to December 2023. The research employs three autoregressive techniques (TVP-VAR, LASSO VAR, and Ridge VAR) to verify the robustness of findings regarding market fragility influenced by non-economic shocks. The study identifies extensive return spillovers primarily driven by Bitcoin and Ethereum, with considerable influences from Cardano, Litecoin, and Polkadot. The results show Ethereum as a primary spillover transmitter in the cryptocurrency market, taking that position formerly held by Bitcoin. Despite the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies, there is potential for diversification through two stablecoins, Tether and USD Coin, which exhibit limited spillover effects from other cryptocurrencies and negative correlations with one another. As a stablecoin, DAI served as a potential diversifier during the COVID-19 pandemic but not during the Ukraine war. The study offers practical insights for investors on managing crypto portfolios during geopolitical and global health crises and the strategic use of stablecoins. Societally, the study examines the need for enhanced regulatory frameworks to reduce systemic risks in the highly interconnected cryptocurrency market.

JEL Classification: G01, G11.