DOI: 10.57237/j.se.2026.04.001 ISSN: 2995-5513

Analysis of Supply‑Demand Characteristics and Security Scenario Simulation of China's Uranium Resources

Zhang Yan, Zhang Yanfei, Li Ting
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To systematically evaluate the security of China’s uranium resource supply and demand and its evolutionary trends, and to address the pressure of uranium resource security posed by nuclear power expansion under the dual carbon goals, geographic spatial analysis methods and system dynamics are integrated for a comprehensive analysis. First, indicators including location quotient, spatial mismatch index, supply-demand matching degree, and coordination degree were employed to quantitatively characterize the supply-demand pattern of China’s uranium resources. Second, a system dynamics model encompassing five dimensions of uranium resource security was constructed, and three institutional resilience scenarios—low, medium, and high—were designed to conduct dynamic simulations of uranium resource security from 2008 to 2050. The results show that: (1) The center of gravity of China’s uranium supply has shifted northward, while consumption in East China and South China remains dominant. The supply-demand mismatch between the north and the south continues to widen, and the coordination degree has remained in a state of long-term imbalance. (2) The system dynamics simulation results indicate that although proven uranium reserves have continued to grow, the security assurance period has been declining since 2015, and external dependence has remained at a high level over the long term. The development of nuclear power has led to significant carbon dioxide emission reductions; however, the accumulated volume of spent fuel has continued to expand. (3) A comparison across different institutional resilience scenarios reveals that, under a high‑institutional‑resilience scenario, a robust supply structure characterized by "domestic production increase, overseas equity supplementation, and import diversification" can be established, whereas, under a low‑institutional‑resilience scenario, import scale becomes uncontrolled and system vulnerability is significantly enhanced. Therefore, in accordance with the supply-demand characteristics of China’s uranium resources, a region‑specific security strategy is proposed: promoting in‑situ leaching uranium mining technology in the sandstone‑type uranium areas of Northwest China, strengthening mine decommissioning and remediation efforts in the hard‑rock areas of South China, and optimizing the layout of strategic reserves along the eastern coastal areas.

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