Analysis of Land Use Change and Driving Factors of Landscape Diversity in Inner Mongolia over the Past Three Decades

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, located in northern China, spans a vast territory. It serves as a crucial transitional zone connecting three major ecosystems—forest, grassland, and desert—and constitutes an essential component of the nation’s ecological security barrier. Over the past three decades, significant changes have occurred in the region’s land use structure and landscape patterns. Based on long-term time-series land use data, this study systematically analyzed land cover changes and landscape diversity characteristics by dividing the region into climatic zones, ecological zones, and administrative areas. Additionally, a driver analysis framework based on the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was constructed, and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was employed to quantitatively identify the contribution rates of driving factors influencing the Shannon Diversity Index (SHDI). Results indicate pronounced spatial heterogeneity in land-use structure dynamics across regions. Among all land use types, grasslands, croplands, and bare land exhibited the most pronounced changes under the combined influence of natural environmental variations and human disturbances. Against this backdrop of landscape pattern evolution, the regional Shannon Diversity Index (SHDI) also showed differentiated variation trends. Based on SHAP contribution analysis, population density (POP) was identified as the primary driver affecting SHDI changes, with a contribution rate of 29.9%, followed by precipitation (PRE, 19.5%), elevation (DEM, 17.2%), and GDP (11.9%). Further SHAP response analysis revealed the nonlinear effects and characteristics of different driving factors on SHDI, indicating that the proposed framework can effectively elucidate the driving mechanisms of landscape changes. The findings provide scientific support for developing sustainable and differentiated land-use management strategies and optimizing ecological conservation and restoration measures across regions with diverse ecological backgrounds.