Analysis of Health Impacts from Future Air Quality Changes Considering the Aging Population in Korea

When predicting the health impacts of PM2.5 from future air quality changes, it is crucial to consider both air quality improvements and population aging. This study divided future emission scenarios into a base and control scenario to project air quality from 2015 to 2030 and assess health outcomes. The GUIDE model, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), was used to estimate future emissions, while the CMAQ (Chemical Transport Model) and BenMAP (Health Impact Model) evaluated health impacts resulting from changes in air quality in Korea. The study focused on the impact of population aging on future health outcomes. Both scenarios showed improved PM2.5 concentrations, with the control scenario showing more substantial improvements due to stronger policy measures. When applying current age patterns, health impacts decreased as PM2.5 concentrations decreased. However, when considering future population aging, health impacts increased despite improved air quality. The results excluding aging show that the number of premature deaths due to cardiovascular disease and all other causes caused by PM2.5 is 18,413 in the base year, while in the future control scenario, the number decreases to 11,729. In contrast, when aging is taken into account, the number of premature deaths increases to 23,037. This finding suggests that, although PM2.5 concentrations are expected to decline, the increasing proportion of elderly individuals will exacerbate health risks. Therefore, accounting for aging population trends is essential when studying the health impacts of future air quality changes.