Analysis of Gold Price Movements Through a Financial Forecasting Model Approach

The resilience of gold to situations full of risk has been proven over a long period of time. Forecasting the movement of gold which is in a safe range is done to prove that gold is still stable. The purpose of this study is to obtain the best model, estimate the parameters, and predict the daily gold price change in the last two years. The AR-GARCH(1.1) model is proven to be able to form the best forecasting model so that future gold resistance can be known with a low error rate. This model can be reliably applied to predict gold prices over the next 30 days. This may prompt investors to consider investing in or out of gold.