An Intelligent Decision Support Framework for Enterprise Value Evaluation in Digital Ecosystems: A Hybrid XGBoost-PSO-BPNN Approach for SRDI SMEs

In the context of an increasingly complex and dynamic digital ecosystem, accurately assessing the value of Specialized, Refined, Differentiated, and Innovative (SRDI) enterprises is crucial for making effective decisions. Traditional valuation methods struggle to effectively address issues such as the high R&D expenditures and significant operational risks associated with these enterprises. This study proposes an interpretable intelligent decision-support framework for valuing SRDI enterprises listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE), constructing a multidimensional indicator system that encompasses solvency, profitability, and R&D capabilities. Feature importance screening using the XGBoost algorithm was conducted to identify key indicators as input variables for a backpropagation (BP) neural network. Concurrently, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm was applied to the neural network to optimize initial weights and thresholds, thereby modeling nonlinear valuation relationships. Empirical analysis of 770 SRDI firms listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange from 2020 to 2024 indicates that the XGBoost-PSO-BPNN model achieved a coefficient of determination of 0.8083 on the test set, outperforming traditional linear models and benchmark models such as single-tree models. SHAP explainability analysis further reveals that current asset turnover, return on assets, and equity concentration are the primary value drivers. This study employs various clustering methods to further classify enterprises into three categories and proposes recommendations for differentiated regulatory policies, providing intelligent decision support for enterprises operating within complex digital ecosystems.