An Integrative Theoretical Model of Institutional Trust, Risk Communication and Credibility, Risk Perception, and Disaster Preparedness

Disaster preparedness depends not only on hazard awareness but also on how individuals relate to institutions, evaluate risk information, interpret threats, and translate those interpretations into protective action. This study develops an integrative theoretical model connecting Institutional Trust, Risk Communication and Credibility, Risk Perception, and Disaster Preparedness. The model is developed through the conceptual integration of established theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence across disaster risk, risk communication, risk perception, institutional trust, and preparedness research. A sequential theoretical pathway is proposed in which Institutional Trust influences Risk Communication and Credibility, which in turn influences Risk Perception and subsequently Disaster Preparedness. Direct pathways from Institutional Trust and Risk Communication and Credibility to Disaster Preparedness are also retained alongside the proposed indirect pathways. Age and gender are incorporated as observed sources of heterogeneity in Risk Perception, while contextual heterogeneity, the risk-perception paradox, and potential institutional substitution effects are recognized as boundary conditions. The resulting model integrates institutional, informational, cognitive, and behavioral processes within a common theoretical architecture and provides a basis for subsequent measurement development and empirical evaluation through structural equation and MIMIC modeling.