An Integrated MMEM-FTA Approach for Causal Analysis of Ship Collisions: A Case Study of Taizhou Coastal Waters

It is of great significance for accident prevention to explore the causes and evolution laws of ship collisions at sea. The paper aims to constructs a systematic MMEM-FTA integrated analysis framework and applies the framework to analyze the causes of ship collisions in Taizhou coastal waters. Ship collision cases in Taizhou coastal waters from 2017 to 2025 are collected, and a statistical analysis is conducted on the characteristics of collision accidents. Under the MMEM frame, 16 accident influencing factors are identified from four aspects: personnel negligence, ship failure, management failure and environmental degradation. Based on FTA, a fault tree diagram of ship collision accidents in Taizhou coastal waters is constructed. Results of both quantitative and quantitative analysis show that the structural importance of ship failure, management failure and complex environment is the largest and an event with higher probabilistic and critical importance is “Unseaworthiness.” These mentioned events are main reasons for ship collision accidents. Suggestions on risk control options (RCOs) for accident prevention are put forward under the MMEM frame. The proposed MMEM-FTA integrated analysis framework is feasible for accident causation analysis. This research can provide theoretical and practical supports for identifying causes of ship collisions, for elucidating the evolution mechanism of accidents and for taking targeted measures to prevent accidental risks.