An Improved AHP-Ridge Regression Hybrid Model for Consumer Trust Evaluation in Cross-Border B2C E-Commerce

Consumer trust is critical to the sustainable development of cross-border B2C e-commerce platforms. Accurately evaluating and diagnosing trust weaknesses has become a key concern for both practitioners and researchers. To address the inherent limitations of existing trust evaluation methods, this study proposes an improved AHP-Ridge Regression hybrid model that integrates expert knowledge with actual consumer perception data. First, an improved Analytic Hierarchy Process based on stakeholder-oriented nonlinear programming is employed to optimize the evaluation weights of nine experts, reduce subjective bias, and generate expert prior weights for each dimension and indicator. Second, these prior weights are incorporated as the regularization prior mean of the Ridge Regression model to construct the improved AHP-Ridge Regression model. Based on survey data from 387 valid respondents across five major cross-border platforms (Tmall Global, JD International, Pinduoduo Global, Sam’s Club Global, and CDFG Duty-Free), the model is compared with six baseline models using a 30-times repeated five-fold nested cross-validation. The proposed model achieves the lowest RMSE (0.3179) and highest R2 (0.6510) among all compared models, with statistically significant improvements over all baselines (Nadeau–Bengio-corrected p < 0.001, large Cohen’s d effect sizes). However, the improvement over conventional Linear Regression is modest in absolute magnitude (ΔRMSE ≈ 0.0012). The primary value of the proposed model lies not in a dramatic leap in predictive accuracy but in its theoretical grounding, interpretability, and diagnostic capability. Permutation importance analysis reveals that Platform Fluidity, AI Technology Usability, Page Layout & Navigation Clarity, Content Accuracy, and Policy Assurance are the most important predictors of consumer trust. Comprehensive calibration and residual diagnostics (including MAE, normality tests, and heteroscedasticity checks) confirm the model’s predictive reliability. Furthermore, platform-specific diagnostics identify three distinct trust profiles (high-trust benchmark, trust-improvement priority, and mixed-profile platforms), providing managers with actionable insights for resource allocation. This study offers cross-border B2C e-commerce platforms a trust evaluation tool that balances predictive accuracy and interpretability, and provides implications for sustainable platform governance and ESG-oriented management by linking trust diagnostics with platform accountability frameworks.