An Empirical Assessment of Natural Disasters’ Effect on Anti‐Refugee Violence, 1996–2015
Thomas CampbellABSTRACT
Introduction
Natural disasters pose a high risk to the security and well‐being of refugees. Building upon literature linking disasters to repression, I argue that as natural disasters become more severe, governments engage in using refugees as scapegoats to divert attention from the crisis, increasing violence against refugees.
Method
To test this argument, I use linear probability models with a covariate balancing propensity score (CBPS) approach and two‐way fixed effects to identify how natural disaster severity (log number of disaster deaths and number affected) affects government‐initiated anti‐refugee violence (ARV).
Results
I find limited support that disasters are associated with government‐led ARV. I do find robust support that the interaction between disasters and refugee population size has a negative relationship to government‐initiated ARV. I find evidence that results finding a positive association may be due to inflating the data with zeroes.
Conclusion
My analysis shows limited support for a direct connection between disasters and government‐initiated ARV. My research points to the need for scholars to be more aware of the data‐generating process and how that may influence their results.