AN APPROACH TO FORECASTING CHANGES IN BUSINESS PROCESSES AND KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AS A RESULT OF IMPLEMENTING TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS

The article examines the methodology for predicting changes in business processes and key performance indicators of agro‑industrial enterprises as a result of implementing technological solutions. The relevance of the study is due to the need to develop effective tools for assessing the impact of modernization on production systems, taking into account their specific features. The aim of the study is to develop a comprehensive approach to predicting the effects of technological modernization based on methods of system dynamics and simulation modeling. The methodological basis of the study consists of methods of system dynamics, simulation modeling, scenario analysis, and statistical methods. The proposed methodology is based on the concept of an agro‑industrial enterprise as a complex dynamic system with multiple direct and feedback connections. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the development of a forecasting algorithm that includes the decomposition of business processes, the construction of cognitive maps, model formalization, verification, and scenario analysis. Special attention is paid to taking into account stochastic factors and time lags. The practical significance of the study is determined by the possibility of applying the developed approach to assess the effectiveness of technological solutions in the agro‑industrial complex. The proposed toolkit enables a quantitative assessment of changes in key performance indicators, taking into account the factor of uncertainty. The research results demonstrate the possibility of using system dynamics methods for a comprehensive analysis of the impact of technological solutions on all interrelated subsystems of the enterprise, which contributes to a scientifically grounded selection of modernization directions.