An ANP-Weighted Spatial Risk Index for Maritime Traffic Safety in a Marine Protected Tourism Corridor: Evidence from Komodo National Park, Indonesia

This study addresses maritime traffic risks in the Labuan Bajo–Komodo marine tourism corridor, a spatially constrained archipelagic environment characterized by mixed vessel traffic, intensive tourism activity, and high ecological sensitivity. An integrated decision-support framework was developed by combining the Analytic Network Process (ANP) with stakeholder-supported grid-based spatial risk analysis. Expert pairwise comparisons from eight respondents were used to evaluate eight interdependent criteria: Natural Conditions, Navigational Channel, Vessel Factors, Maritime Traffic Conditions, Port Control, Authority/Stakeholders, Tourism, and Environmental Impact. The ANP calculation was conducted using geometric mean group aggregation, consistency ratio assessment, and targeted follow-up clarification for matrices requiring refinement. The final ANP results show that Port Control received the highest priority weight (0.172), followed by Natural Conditions (0.148), Maritime Traffic Conditions (0.144), Environmental Impact (0.135), Vessel Factors (0.121), Navigational Channel (0.120), Authority/Stakeholders (0.104), and Tourism (0.0566). At the global subcriteria level, communication effectiveness, channel complexity, environmental compliance, local traffic density, and seasonal traffic variation emerged as the dominant contributors to risk. A stakeholder-supported partial spatial risk index (SRI) was then calculated for 21 grid cells using spatially mappable ANP criteria. The highest-risk cells were grids 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, and 14, while sensitivity analysis confirmed that grids 3, 5, 6, 9, 10, and 14 remained high risk across all tested spatial-weight scenarios. The findings indicate that maritime traffic risk in Komodo National Park is not driven by environmental exposure alone, but by the interaction of traffic control capacity, natural hazards, traffic concentration, environmental sensitivity, and institutional coordination. The proposed framework supports spatially informed traffic management, environmental compliance, and emergency preparedness planning in marine protected tourism corridors.