An Algorithmic Framework for Plant-Level AC Power Estimation in a Bifacial Horizontal Single-Axis Tracking PV System Using Explainable and Ensemble Machine Learning

Accurate plant-level photovoltaic (PV) power estimation is important for performance monitoring, model benchmarking, and grid-integration studies. In bifacial horizontal single-axis tracking (HSAT) systems, this task is complicated by the coupled effects of front-side irradiance, rear-side irradiance, tracker position, and module temperature. This study proposes an algorithmic framework for same-time-step AC power estimation in a bifacial HSAT PV plant using field measurements of irradiance, tracker angle, module temperature, and inverter active power. The framework is not intended as an operational forecasting model because future irradiance and weather conditions are not predicted; instead, it evaluates how compact physics-based structure, interpretable nonlinear learning, and ensemble learning estimate measured AC power under nominal operating conditions. An empirical rear-to-front irradiance relationship was derived using solar-elevation bins and incorporated into a compact physics-based benchmark. This benchmark was compared with an additive Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) and a Random Forest (RF) on a common test subset of 3916 observations. The physics-based model achieved an RMSE of 19.6 kW, an R2 of 0.72, and an NRMSE of 0.38. The EBM improved these values to 17.09 kW, 0.786, and 0.334, respectively, while the RF achieved 15.96 kW, 0.814, and 0.312. Chronological validation showed weaker and more variable performance than randomized validation, indicating that temporal generalization remains challenging. Overall, the results support the use of interpretable PV-domain-guided learning as a transparent intermediate approach between compact physics-based modeling and more flexible ensemble regression.