Americans Assume Far More Polarization on Renewable Energy Than Actually Exists: A National Mixed-Methods Study of Second-Order Beliefs

We report a national mixed-methods study of the second-order beliefs (beliefs about others’ beliefs) of U.S. adults ( N = 730) regarding further renewable energy development. Results show that Americans systematically underestimate support within both their own party and the opposing party. For example, Republicans’ actual support outpaced Democrats’ estimates of it by more than 200%. In addition, our qualitative analysis of first-order and second-order explanations for why people hold their opinions revealed large cross-party misperceptions. Both parties are extraordinarily uncharitable, with each party often explaining their opponents’ views as being driven by ignorance, bias, or profiteering. Further, even though 44% of Republicans mentioned environmental benefits as a primary reason for their opinions, only 3% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans noted that motive when estimating what influences Republicans’ opinions. Our results also show that those who are more certain in their second-order beliefs tend to in fact be more accurate.