AIS-Based Ship Trajectory Prediction Using a Geometry-Consistent Trajectory Transformer (GCT-Former)

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction from Automatic Identification System (AIS) records is important for maritime traffic monitoring, route planning, and intelligent vessel traffic management. However, reliable prediction remains challenging for long forecasting horizons and turning maneuvers. To address this problem, this study proposes the Geometry-Consistent Trajectory Transformer (GCT-Former), a progressive and refinement-based framework for AIS-based vessel trajectory prediction. The proposed model integrates multi-scale historical trajectory encoding, progressive residual future-position generation, and global–local trajectory refinement to improve the stability and continuity of long-horizon trajectory prediction. The predicted trajectories are evaluated as geometric future-position estimates and can provide trajectory-level information for downstream maritime traffic monitoring and decision-support applications. Experiments are conducted on three real-world Danish maritime regions: Aarhus Bay, Great Belt, and Skagen. Compared with representative conventional and deep-learning trajectory prediction models, the proposed model shows its most consistent advantage in long-horizon prediction, particularly in terms of ADE and FDE. In the long-term setting, it achieves average displacement errors of 0.344, 0.546, and 0.218 km and final displacement errors of 0.774, 1.368, and 0.525 km on Aarhus Bay, Great Belt, and Skagen, respectively. The ablation analysis further shows that removing the multi-scale encoding module increases the long-term average displacement error by 7%, 4%, and 3%, while removing the progressive residual decoder leads to larger increases of 15%, 9%, and 8% on the three datasets. The turning-maneuver analysis also shows lower geometric prediction errors under mild-turning and sharp-turning scenarios. These results indicate that GCT-Former improves AIS-based vessel trajectory prediction, especially for long-horizon and maneuvering cases.