AI oases: Leveraging Gulf AI ambitions for U.S. strategic objectives

Abstract

This paper examines how the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) are emerging as pivotal actors in the global race for frontier AI dominance, and analyzes the implications for U.S. strategic interests. It evaluates each country’s current position in the frontier AI development and deployment supply chain – detailing the UAE’s and KSA’s massive investments in AI infrastructure and connections with the USA, China and France – as well as the two Gulf states’ unique advantages in capital, energy and centralized governance. Gulf investments are reshaping global tech supply chains and could either strengthen or undermine U.S. technological leadership, depending on U.S. engagement. The paper recommends a proactive U.S. strategy to leverage Gulf AI ambitions while safeguarding national security. Recommendations include enforcing rigorous technical safeguards on Gulf-based AI infrastructure, tightening export control oversight to prevent diversion of advanced chips, joint targeted R&D investment initiatives, co-development of international AI standards, strict investment screening via the Committee on Foreign Investment in the USA and measures to prevent conflicts of interest.