AI Adoption for PMO Transformation in GCC Banks: An Expert-Refined TOE Model

Although the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in banking has accelerated across customer-facing and operational domains, its application within Project Management Offices (PMOs) remains underexplored, particularly in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banks, where PMOs support portfolio governance, transformation, and IT strategy execution. Drawing on the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework, with the Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3) serving as a complementary PMO-context lens, this study develops an expert-refined model of conditions perceived as important for AI adoption in GCC banking PMOs. A mixed-methods survey combining Likert-scale items and open-ended responses was completed by 61 experts. Quantitative analysis was performed to assess the experts’ endorsements, as well as thematic analysis to interpret their contextual meanings. All eight literature-derived constructs received endorsement, with management support, governance practices, and organizational readiness receiving the strongest mean endorsements. The experts interpreted AI-enabled PMO transformation as an organizationally led process involving governed data, leadership sponsorship, capability-building, accountable governance, regulatory assurance, and context-relevant vendor support. This study contributes a contextually grounded TOE-based model of AI adoption for PMOs in GCC banks and offers practical considerations for PMO professionals, banking executives, regulators, and AI vendors. It should be noted that the reported findings are exploratory and reflect expert perceptions, rather than supporting causal or predictive relationships.