Agriculture–Space Coupling and Planning Response in Central Gansu Arid Loess Region Under Climate Resilience

Climate change poses persistent risks to agriculture and rural livelihoods in arid and semi-arid regions. Focusing on 235 townships in the arid Loess Region of Central Gansu, this study links the assessment of potential agricultural resilience with the interpretation of spatial matching and planning responses. A pressure–carrier–mechanism–response framework organizes historical climate constraints, agricultural and spatial conditions, coordination diagnosis, and proposed interventions within a common analytical sequence. Entropy-weight evaluation, a coupling coordination model, and type-based spatial projection are applied to 50 representative townships and extended to the wider study area. The existing results show stronger performance in irrigated river-valley areas and weaker performance in loess hilly and rain-fed areas. Water–soil mismatch is the principal diagnosed constraint in 74% of the cases of obstacles in representative townships. The framework’s contribution lies in connecting the diagnosis of agricultural and spatial conditions to differentiated planning responses. It provides a basis for discussing water–land management, agricultural service organization, and county-to-township planning coordination under locally specific resource constraints.