Age- and sex-specific trends in Canadian mental health from 2003 to 2024: a repeated cross-sectional meta-regression analysis
Sara Zulyniak, Gina Dimitropoulos, Eric Chan, Scott PattenAbstract
Aims
This analysis aimed to examine past 20-year prevalence trends of multiple mental health outcomes by age and sex, using repeated cross-sectional survey data from the Canadian household population.
Methods
Age- and sex-stratified bootstrap-weighted prevalence estimates were calculated from available Canadian Community Health Survey datasets between 2002 and 2024. Categorizations for age included adolescents and young adults (12–29 years), middle-aged adults (30–64 years) and older adults (65+ years). Mental health outcomes included self-reported professionally diagnosed mood and anxiety disorder, depression survey scales (Composite International Diagnostic Interview Short Form for Major Depression /9-item brief Patient Health Questionnaire) and fair/poor self-perceived mental health. Stratified prevalence estimates from each year were combined and assessed for heterogeneity using random-effects meta-analysis. In the instance of heterogeneity, meta-regression models were applied to generate predicted prevalence trends over time for each mental health outcome, by age and sex categories.
Results
The prevalence of all mental health outcomes increased from 2002/2003 to 2024, in all age groups of both sexes. For example, in adolescent and young adult males, the weighted prevalence of diagnosed mood disorder increased from 2.37% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.03, 2.78) in 2003 to 12.58% (95% CI: 10.37, 15.19) in 2024, while prevalence in females of this age group increased from 5.23% (95% CI: 4.76, 5.74) in 2003 to 21.49% (95% CI: 18.97, 24.24) in 2024. Generally, young males saw the greatest relative increases in prevalence, while young females had the greatest absolute increases. Middle-aged and older adults also saw notable increases in their prevalence of poor mental health. Quadratic survey year terms were statistically significant in meta-regression analysis for all outcomes, age and sex groups (excluding mood disorder trends in65+-year-old adults), suggesting curvilinear trends. Male age categories showed more similar trends over time when compared to age-specific estimates of females.
Conclusions
The broad identification of increasing prevalence across various outcomes, age and sex groups has not been highlighted by prior research. Though prevalence increases in young females remain distinct, this finding aligns with previous literature. Consistency of trend patterns between diverse mental health outcomes indicates that multiple dimensions of mental health may be changing similarly over time. Future analyses are critical in understanding the potential factors contributing to these trends and should look to include broad population samples, rather than limiting analyses to specific age/sex groups.