African Youth and the Future of Democracy: How Social Media and Cohort Size Shape Political Participation

Abstract

Despite their demographic size and growing political influence, African youth remain understudied in research on political participation. This article examines how two structural shifts, youth cohort size and social media use, independently and jointly shape electoral and protest behaviour across 40 African countries. Using Afrobarometer data (2016–2023) and complementary contextual datasets, we find that individual socio-economic factors remain the strongest predictors of participation, but demographic structure and digital engagement also matter. Larger youth cohorts are associated with a greater likelihood of voting. Social media use is connected with increases in protest participation while reducing the likelihood of voting, and its interaction with youth cohort size shapes both behaviours in important, non-linear ways. These findings challenge assumptions that youthful populations inherently drive unrest and show that digital mobilisation is strongly conditioned by the demographic context. Our study has significant implications for democratic legitimacy and youth inclusion in Africa’s rapidly changing political environments.