Accepting “Conventional Numbers”: Determining the Size of the Worldwide Counterfeit Goods Market

There is a remarkable commonality in the estimates of the worldwide counterfeit goods market—something like $500-billion annually. Many diverse sources quote figures in this range with great authority. But searching behind this frequently given estimate reveals a serious problem with this “accepted wisdom.” There is little agreement on definitions and serious problems of measurement. Attempting to measure the global value of counterfeit products is excruciatingly difficult, given the illegal nature of this activity. This paper explores these problems and points out the pitfalls of accepting conventional wisdom.