Abstract 18509: NT-proBNP Trajectories and Heart Failure Risk Associations in Middle to Older Ages in Adulthood: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
Bige Ozkan, Noelle Pavlovic, Vijay Nambi, Justin B Echouffo, Xiaoming Jia, Christie M Ballantyne, Amil M Shah, Roger S Blumenthal, Kuni Matsushita, Elizabeth Selvin, Josef Coresh, Chiadi E Ndumele- Physiology (medical)
- Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
Background: NT-proBNP is a powerful marker of heart failure (HF) risk. NT-proBNP levels increase with age; however, the impact of distinct longitudinal trajectories of NT-proBNP on future HF risk with aging is largely unexplored.
Hypothesis: Middle-aged adults with higher baseline concentrations and steeper increases of NT-proBNP through older ages have greater HF risk.
Methods: We performed a prospective analysis of 12,124 ARIC participants with 2 or more serial NT-proBNP measurements from Visits 2 through 6, without HF at baseline or HF events between the NT-proBNP assessments. We constructed linear mixed models to evaluate NT-proBNP trajectories for males and females. We defined 4 trajectories, using sex-specific medians to define high versus low: low baseline/low slope, low baseline/high slope, high baseline/low slope, high baseline/high slope. We used Kaplan Meier survival curves and multivariable Cox regression to evaluate the HF risk associations of different NT-proBNP trajectories.
Results: The mean age was 57 years with 56% women and 23% Black adults, BMI 27. The median baseline NT-proBNP concentrations were 62 and 36 pg/mL and the average NT-proBNP slopes were 4.6% and 7.2% increase/year for women and men, respectively. Black individuals were more likely to have lower baseline levels, whereas those with diabetes, obesity, or prevalent coronary heart disease had higher slopes. Over a median 22-year follow-up, 2,772 HF events occurred. There was a stepwise increase in HF risk with higher baseline levels and slopes of NT-proBNP, with individuals with the high baseline/high slope NT-proBNP trajectory having a HR for HF of 3.70 (95% CI 3.26-4.20) compared to those with low baseline-low slope ( Figure ).
Conclusions: Higher baseline concentrations and steeper increases of NT-proBNP with aging are associated with greater HF risk. Identifying and addressing modifiable determinants of NT-proBNP trajectories with aging may have implications for HF prevention.