DOI: 10.3390/su18168219 ISSN: 2071-1050

A Transfer of Agricultural Practices from North to Equatorial Regions as a Sustainable Strategy for Mitigating the Effects of Nuclear and Volcanic Winter (Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios) on Crops

Alexey Turchin, David Denkenberger

In the event of a nuclear or volcanic winter, up to two-thirds of sunlight could be blocked (abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, ASRS), leading to a worldwide crop failure. There are some similarities between such effects and the short northern summer. This suggests the possibility of transferring successful agricultural practices validated in high latitudes to tropical regions, especially low-tech solutions, which can be more easily implemented in the case of a global catastrophe. We show that equatorial regions’ temperatures under a 150 Tg (millions of tonnes of soot to the stratosphere) scenario of nuclear winter (around 15 °C average) are similar to summer temperatures in northern European regions of the former Soviet Union, which had functional agriculture. We identified the following main agricultural technologies which can be adapted: (a) cold-tolerant crops, first of all potatoes, but also rutabaga and fodder beet; (b) frost-protection technologies (night-covering, watering, bottles with water); (c) silage production in pits for animal feeding; (d) and low-labor-demanding crops. One meta lesson is making several bets on different food-producing technologies in the situation of risky agricultural practices. These findings contribute to Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) and highlight how historically validated, low-input agricultural knowledge can underpin sustainable food system resilience under extreme climate disruption.

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