A systematic review of observational studies reporting climate change impacts on plant communities in Mediterranean‐type ecosystems

Context . Mediterranean‐type ecosystems (MTEs) are projected to be among the most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change. Plant community responses in MTEs to climate change have been well researched using experimental and modelling approaches, yet observational studies are less common.

Approach . We present a systematic review of observed climate change impacts on plant communities across the five global MTEs, highlighting key disturbances and drivers of vegetation change, biological responses to these disturbances, and prevailing geographic trends.

Literature trends . A relatively small number of publications met our criteria ( N _pub  = 128), of which only 11 were reported in assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The publications exhibited a large geographic bias, with only 9% from the Global South. Reported disturbances and responses were unevenly represented across MTEs.

Drivers and responses . Climate variability, drought, wildfire, frost, and pathogens/insect infestations were the most reported disturbances, largely studied in relation to vegetation condition and growth. Studies on diversity, phenology and physiology were less common, and absent in some MTEs.

Confidence assessment . An index assessing confidence in studies' methods and findings revealed high scores for understanding relationships between climate change impacts and observed responses, and lower scores for detection of climate change‐induced biological responses. The extent to which reported differences among regions reflect different effects of climate change and biological responses versus research focus and capacity remains unclear. While the included literature has improved our understanding of observed climate change impacts on plant communities in each MTE, the transferability of this knowledge across regions is limited by unequal reporting between regions. Since few studies applied causal inference methods for observational data, there is an opportunity to reanalyse existing datasets to improve our understanding of causal relationships.

Policy implications . Developing a collaborative, integrative research programme that considers common resilience mechanisms among MTEs will aid our understanding of causal relationships among climate change‐induced disturbances and vegetation responses. By identifying shared drivers of resilience and vulnerability across MTEs, such research can support more targeted and effective management interventions, strengthen climate adaptation and mitigation efforts, and inform conservation action in these global biodiversity hotspots.