A Structural Equation Model Analysis of Boko-Haram Insurgency and Educational Development in Borno North Senatorial District of Borno State, Nigeria

The Boko Haram conflict continues to education through school closures, destruction of educational infrastructure, and displacement of teachers and learners. This study examined the effect of Boko Haram insurgency on educational development and literacy rate in Borno North Senatorial District of Borno State, Nigeria. The study was anchored on Social Disorganisation Theory, which explains how prolonged insecurity weakens community institutions, social cohesion, and the capacity to provide essential services such as education. A descriptive crosssectional survey design was adopted. A sample size of 499 respondents was drawn and respondents were stratified by LGA, gender, and role as teachers, learners, and community leaders. Resprondents were selected using multi-stage sampling technique. Data were collected using structured questionnaire and analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling. The measurement model demonstrated adequate reliability and convergent validity, with composite reliability values ranging from 0.826 to 0.834 and average variance extracted values ranging from 0.532 to 0.582. The structural model revealed that Boko Haram insurgency has a strong and statistically significant negative effect on educational development and literacy rate, measured in terms of school enrollment, completion, and literacy scores (β = -0.733, T = 23.092, p = 0.000). The model further showed that Boko Haram insurgency explained 53.7% of the variance in educational development and literacy rate. The study concludes that persistent Boko Haram insurgency significantly undermines educational development and literacy in Borno North Senatorial District. The study recommends strengthened school security and community-based protection, rehabilitation of damaged schools, and educational recovery programmes, among others.