A Sensory-Centered Logistic–Arrhenius Framework for Shelf-Life Prediction of Flammulina filiformis Under Different Storage Temperatures

Fresh edible mushrooms deteriorate rapidly during distribution, leading to quality loss, retail rejection, and avoidable waste of product, packaging, and refrigeration resources. Here, we developed a probability-based sensory shelf-life framework for commercially packaged Flammulina filiformis under controlled storage. Three hundred retail packages were stored at 4, 15 and 25 °C. Four sensory defects were scored and integrated into a composite overall quality index (OQ), and the endpoint attainment probability, p (OQ ≥ 3), was modeled by temperature-specific logistic regression. Whiteness, weight loss, polyphenol oxidase (PPO) activity, malondialdehyde (MDA) content, and soluble protein content were measured as supporting quality indices. Sensory rejection increased progressively and was accelerated at higher temperatures. Off-odor emerged earlier than the other defects and governed overall acceptability. Logistic models closely tracked endpoint progression and estimated shelf lives of 31.9 h (25 °C), 104.7 h (15 °C), and 261.4 h (4 °C), with relative errors within 3% compared with observed values. This sensory-centered framework provides an interpretable basis for shelf-life prediction and quality management of packaged enoki mushrooms.