A Scenario Analysis of Production, Employment, and Sales for Photovoltaic (PV) Module Manufacturing in Eskisehir, Türkiye

This study develops a calibrated scenario analysis of production, employment, and sales for solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturing in Eskisehir, Türkiye. A Cobb–Douglas production function with an energy input is specified and calibrated rather than econometrically estimated. A firsthand household electricity survey conducted in Eskisehir in 2013 is used to characterize potential local demand, not to validate the production parameters. Meanwhile, the relationship between “Leisure time” and “Work” is theoretically linked to the “Output” under free-market conditions and profit maximization. This is achieved by expressing Output in terms of “Work”. Therefore, the novelty lies in defining the output as a function of “Work” and its counterpart, “Leisure time”, using the cosine function in the mathematical definition of “Work” via the scalar product as W = F→·d→, and defined as W = F d cos θ. Here, the analogues of F, d, and cos θ are Energy (E), Labor × Capital (L × K), and Human capital (H), respectively. With this adaptation to energy economics, cos θ is used as a dimensionless, calibrated index of labor effectiveness. The representation is an expository normalization and not a utility-based theory of labor supply: Equation (14) is an identity by construction rather than a testable behavioral relation. The reference plant is assumed to employ 15 production workers and two support staff. This workforce is an assumption of scale and is not derived as an economic cost optimum. At that assumed scale, the ideal case assembles 21.2 three-kilowatt module sets per day and the benchmark case 13.0 with the same workforce, the effectiveness index scaling output without changing the assumed scale. Valued at the complete installed-system price, the revenue net of labor cost is 56.8 million EUR per year in the ideal case and 34.8 million EUR in the benchmark case over a thirty-year horizon; valued at the module share of that price, which is what a module manufacturer can charge, the same two scenarios yield 37.8 and 23.1 million EUR per year; because material, energy, depreciation, financing, and logistics costs are not included, these figures are gross margins over labor cost and must not be read as net profits. The framework offers a transparent and reproducible way to compare production decisions across effectiveness levels; however, empirical validation requires plant-level data that are not yet available for Türkiye.