A Safety-Case-Driven Hybrid Digital Twin for Centrifugal Compressor Health Monitoring

Centrifugal compressors are critical assets in the oil and gas, petrochemical, and power generation industries, where unplanned downtime results in severe economic and safety consequences. Despite the application of digital twin technology for predictive maintenance, existing approaches struggle to combine accurate degradation modeling with formal assurance evidence that regulators and operators demand before trusting machine learning-augmented systems. This paper proposes a hybrid digital twin framework whose architecture is structured around a formal safety case template, addressing both the accuracy and the trustworthiness challenges simultaneously. The methodology couples a first-principles thermodynamic model with a neural-network residual learner, and the complete system is organized through a design-stage safety case constructed in Goal Structuring Notation. The design stage identifies the requirements for operational deployment. Validation through a simulation study on a one-year synthetic operational dataset shows that the hybrid model reduces root-mean-square prediction error by over 50% for both pressure ratio and polytropic efficiency compared to the physics-only baseline. The anomaly detection module, presented here as a proof of concept, achieves 92% recall in identifying injected faults, and a composite health index tracks the progression of fouling, erosion, and seal wear over the simulated service life. This study is purely theoretical, with no experimental measurements conducted. It demonstrates the structural viability and coherence of the proposed framework within a controlled environment, providing a solid theoretical and computational foundation for future physical validation efforts. These findings provide preliminary evidence that embedding a structured safety argument into the design of a hybrid digital twin is technically feasible and beneficial for building the confidence needed to deploy such systems in safety-critical industrial environments.