A Risk-Based Model for Infrastructure Quality Evaluation in Decentralized Road Projects: Evidence from Indonesia

This study addresses the absence of a structured and reproducible framework for evaluating road infrastructure project quality under decentralized procurement systems. A quantitative approach was employed using project-level data from 96 completed road infrastructure projects and questionnaire responses from 50 stakeholders. Infrastructure quality was measured using an Infrastructure Quality Index (IQI) derived from objective technical inspection data, while perceived risk factors were assessed through Likert-scale questionnaires. Multiple regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between risk factors and infrastructure quality, and statistically significant predictors were incorporated into a risk-based evaluation model following ISO 31000 principles. The results indicate that Procurement Governance Risk, Contract Compliance Risk, Project Supervision Risk, Resource Availability Risk, and Sociocultural Risk significantly influence infrastructure quality, whereas Contractor Capacity Risk and Contractor Workload Risk were not statistically significant. A Composite Risk Index was subsequently developed by integrating likelihood and consequence dimensions through weighted aggregation and explicit classification thresholds. The proposed framework provides a transparent and reproducible tool for project evaluation, contractor performance assessment, and risk-informed decision-making. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening governance, supervision, and contract compliance to improve infrastructure quality in decentralized construction environments.