A Primer on Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR)

Abstract

Global catastrophic risk (GCR) is the potential for an unprecedented worldwide catastrophe which eliminates more than a tenth of the population within decades. In the worst cases, this could lead to existential risk: the potential for global societal collapse or human extinction. There is an emerging consensus that the world now faces a non-trivial level of GCR. This century could see such a global calamity. Despite its importance to the future of humanity, GCR is understudied, although the field is rapidly advancing. This primer outlines the current state of knowledge on GCR, including the definitions, several of contributors to GCR (AI, climate change, nuclear weapons, pandemics, and natural hazards), how probabilities are estimated, and current challenges for the field.