DOI: 10.3390/electronics12163441 ISSN:

A Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Intelligent Data Analysis

He Liu, Xuanrui Xiong, Biao Yang, Zhanwei Cheng, Kai Shao, Amr Tolba
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Hardware and Architecture
  • Signal Processing
  • Control and Systems Engineering

Abnormal electricity consumption behavior not only affects the safety of power supply but also damages the infrastructure of the power system, posing a threat to the secure and stable operation of the grid. Predicting future electricity consumption plays a crucial role in resource management in the energy sector. Analyzing historical electricity consumption data is essential for improving the energy service capabilities of end-users. To forecast user energy consumption, this paper proposes a method that combines adaptive noise-assisted complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMDAN) with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Firstly, considering the challenge of directly applying prediction models to non-stationary and nonlinear user electricity consumption data, the adaptive noise-assisted complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition algorithm is used to decompose the signal into trend components, periodic components, and random components. Then, based on the CEEMDAN decomposition, an LSTM prediction sub-model is constructed to forecast the overall electricity consumption by using an overlaying approach. Finally, through multiple comparative experiments, the effectiveness of the CEEMDAN-LSTM method is demonstrated, showing its ability to explore hidden temporal relationships and achieve smaller prediction errors.

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