A New Methodological Framework for Bridge Deck Deterioration Modeling Based on National Bridge Element (NBE) Data

The National Bridge Element (NBE) dataset offers granular, quantitative condition data of bridge components; however, its potential for developing advanced deterioration models remains largely untapped. Current research often translate NBE condition states into coarser National Bridge Inventory (NBI) ratings, overlooking the rich information contained in the temporal changes in element quantities across condition states. This paper introduces a novel methodological framework that treats the transition of element quantities between condition states as the primary input for deterioration modeling. The core of this framework lies in constructing a survival data set directly from NBE element-level changes, where a “failure event” is defined as a partial quantity of an element transitioning to a worse condition. To bridge the gap between these localized, partial transitions and the overall deterioration of the entire bridge deck, an inverse probability weighted Cox proportional hazards model is used. This weighting scheme is designed to approximate the global survival characteristics of the deck based on observable local changes. As a proof-of-concept, this framework is applied to a sample set of concrete bridge deck data from the Long-Term Bridge Performance InfoBridge database under the simplifying assumption of no maintenance interventions to isolate natural deterioration. The results demonstrate feasibility of the proposed framework, showing that the IPW–Cox model can be effectively fitted and that the weighting approach systematically adjusts the survival probabilities, offering a more realistic representation of the overall deck’s lifespan compared with unweighted models. This paper establish a foundational paradigm rather than a definitive prediction tool.